TRAINING WEEK
GENERAL OBJECTIVE OF THE TRAINING WEEK
The MARA 2006 Training Week aims to train participants 'hands-on' in applicable methodologies in the area of decision analysis. Decision analysis provides a framework to think systematically about ill-structured, complex decision situations with conflicting objectives and uncertain future outcomes. Participants will learn how to aid decision-makers in the private and public sector to solve multiple-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders (Prof. Larry Phillips), to aid decision-makers dealing with risk & uncertainty (Detlof von Winterfeldt) and to enhance value-focused thinking and structuring decisions (Prof. Ralph Keeney). All three academics were awarded the Ramsey Medal for Distinguished Contributions in the area of decision analysis.
Module 1 - Socio-technical Decision Analysis
Methodologies
- Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis
- Decision Conferencing
Trainer
Prof. Larry Phillips
London School of Economics
Content
During this module, Prof. Larry Phillips will introduce the theory and practice of socio-technical decision analysis. This approach is especially applicable to solve multi-stakeholder decisions with multiple objectives involved. Conflicting objectives are common in decision situations in the private and public sector, in particular in areas such as strategy development, marketing, R&D or funding prioritization. One key to resolve these types of problems is the adequate measurement of benefits and costs of different options and their subsequent value-trade offs. (Psychological) measurement approaches will therefore form part of this module, as well as facilitation methodologies to combine the views of different stakeholders. Prof. Phillips has been applying the decision conferencing approach for more than 25 years, both in the private and public sector. His expertise is characterised by applying a wide variety of approaches, such as decision and risk analysis, scenario planning and the theory of multiple objectives. He has focused on issues of strategic and operational management, option evaluation, prioritization, resource allocation, policy analysis and crisis management. His book on decision analysis in social contexts is forthcoming.
More information www.catalyze.co.uk
Module 2 - Risk Analysis
Methodologies
- Decision Trees
- Simulations
- Sensitivity Analyses
Trainer
Director of the Homeland Security Center for Risk & Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern California
Content
Risks and uncertainties create major difficulties in decision making. For example, a decision to invest in a research and development project faces uncertainties about the project's success and the likely return on the investment, if it is successful. Decision analysis offers several tools to improve the quality of decision making when facing risks and uncertainties, including decision trees, influence diagrams and probabilistic simulation. Prof. Detlof von Winterfeldt will introduce methodologies, based on several exercises and computer demonstrations, to capture and manage risk in difficult decision situations. Prof. von Winterfeldt has been teaching courses in statistics, decision analysis, risk management, human judgment and decision making. As a consultant he has applied decision and risk analysis to many management problems of governmental institutions and private corporations. He co-authored the classic book Decision analysis and behavioral research (Cambridge University Press, 1986) and Advances in Decision Analysis (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming).
More information www.usc.edu/create
Module 3 - Value-focused Thinking
Methodologies
- Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) framework
- Identifying, structuring and measuring objectives
- VFT & strategy
Trainer
Prof. Ralph L. Keeney
The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University
Content
Many methodologies and tools to manage complex decisions assume well-structured situations with clearly developed objectives and alternatives. However, most 'real-world' decision situations are rather ill-structured with unclear objectives and alternatives. Value-focused Thinking (VFT) is an approach to use fundamental values to guide decision-making activities, including the creation of better decision alternatives and identification of valuable decision opportunities. Value-focused thinking thereby addresses the large gap between unstructured creative thinking and very structured approaches to decision problems. Based on several - possibly MARA related - cases, Prof. Keeney will introduce the participants to the power of this approach. An application of VFT to strategy development is included in the module. Prof. Keeney's research interests are the areas of decision-making and risk analysis, with a focus on problems involving multiple objectives. He has applied his work as a consultant for several private and public organisations. He is author of the books Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking, (Harvard University Press, 1992) and Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions (Harvard Business School Press, 1999).
More information www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/alpha/keeney.htm
